A $250M janitorial services company was acquired by their Private Equity sponsor as a platform for future acquisitions. Revenue was highly concentrated in retail clients, creating sector-based risk. The marketplace is highly fragmented, and competition consists of dozens of smaller regional and sector-based competitors. The company had several acquisitions identified across diverse sectors but was unable to accurately measure the total addressable market (TAM) or anticipated growth rate of these acquisition targets. This prevented the company from building accurate market coverage models, determining the investment required for scaling the sales force, identifying expense synergies where the distribution channels overlapped and building predictable growth models.
We developed a statistical model to identify commercial growth and profitability potential for a $50M regional acquisition target in the hospitality sector. The model leveraged available 1st party client data from the acquisition target, enriched with 3rd party data to perform regression testing. This enabled us to build a bottoms-up addressable market, in which we identified high growth and high propensity prospects across North America.